Here’s an analysis of a debate about whether it is or is not a lab leak. There’s very compelling arguments on both sides, but I find the lab leak angle to have the most evidence for it.

I think I understand why people assume it can’t be a leak – it sounds like fiction; people have said this about previous events and turned out to be wrong; it would be bad for China if true, so it must be politically motivated. It’s okay, you can relax and join me in the ranks of people who are open minded to either outcome.

(Edit: This is a stupid aside, but you define theory as something with no evidence for it, and then put lab leak “theory” in quotes as though you don’t think it fits that definition.)