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Cake day: February 15th, 2025

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  • You’re going to have a phase where very important software systems are going to be designed and maintained by people who are not developers in the traditional sense. LLMs give the MBA class an excuse to do cost cutting, which you’re seeing across the board. This means either them or more junior developers will be brought in as glorified prompt engineers. The code they end up creating will be based on all the problems of the LLMs. Hallucinations, etc. After the dotcom boom and the move to digitize everything, the value of a company ended up becoming the software and data it produces. This gave the nerds a great employment leverage over the MBA class, because it’s not like they were going to solve all the problems and digitize all the value. Now this trend is reversing, and the value of many non-software companies is actually in the software they produced over the past two decades. During this time, large amounts of jobs were lost after moving on premise hosting to the cloud. Now these same handful of tech companies who already own the infrastructure of an increasing number of companies, is also producing LLM agents that are meant to replace the brains and value behind their software. So if a group of AI companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc all start owning both the infrastructure, data and the brains to create and maintain the software, who really begins to own all of these companies over time?

    At any rate, the failure potential of these changes are high and itself will hopefully create a lot of jobs by knowledgeable people who come in to fix the mistakes…



  • The ICE raids are meant to cause the response we are seeing, and eventually an even more powerful response. The White House has already been throwing around the word insurrection, which implies the insurrection act. If the natural escalation that they expect takes place, it could create the conditions where the insurrection act can be invoked. Since the Federal level is under control of the Trump Administration, that leaves the National Guard, state police, county sheriffs, and local police departments. The only one of these capable of standing up to the Feds would be the National Guard. If things turn ugly over the next few weeks during continued raids in places like L.A., it could force the Governor to deploy the national guard given the numbers of people involved. Some of these communities are well armed and they are already fighting back. If the goal is to cause the conditions to invoke the insurrection act, it would take away the ablity of the California Governor to direct his national guard. They can be forced to follow the orders of the President, which is one of the reasons for using the Insurrection Act in the first place.

    In a place like L.A., this leaves just the LAPD and Sherrifs department and they do not have the power to stop both the Feds and a national guard under White House control. L.A. seems to be heavily targeted by the Trump administration in many different ways. They are looking at bribery and corruption in many areas like LA Homeless Agency. The ICE raids targeted the Fashion District are meant as an economic attack, as many of those people worked in shops and factories. Other ICE raids targeted companies involved in agriculture. The Trump admin is also looking at other Federal funding to take away from California.

    All of this combined could mean that the state Government, state and local police cannot protect these communities from what is being sent after them, partially as an overall form of economic warfare against California generally. You have the wildfire funds, the tariffs attacking the shipping areas of coastal California, and it’s obvious that it is a well planned operation. Behind this too is a hostile DOJ and FBI, not to mention DHS, ICE, and everyone else. They are being hunted.

    The State Government can’t protect anyone either, they have been totally outmanuvered at every stage, because they are just coasting until 2026. The one advantage people have is their numbers. Peaceful protest is the way forward, it just takes a lot more people knowing about the raids and being present to protest them. If the Trump admin wants a Kent state or Tiananmen Square type situation on their hands, that will be on them…


  • Many states never agreed with LGBT people having employment at all. Much of the history involves homelessness as a result of not being able to have sustained work because in many states, society would label and sabotage the ability for LGBT or people believed to be LGBT to have employment which is necessary to maintain housing. It was very much a sustained, methodical, approach that was taken. This is true going back to the Lavendar Scare in the Federal Govt, where like rooting out communists during the McCarthy era, they made sure to take all the Govt jobs away from anyone believed to be gay. Discrimination at work is a key means of taking away the right for someone to work.

    Now they have many new weapons to enforce this end result in the lives of people living in the states that want to bring this back.
















  • You can’t really use past market events as a reference for anything happening now. The global system is completely different and changing very fast. The longer term implications here are that the U.S. Govt has been out of money for a while and there is a ton of upcoming debt to issue. Part of the response to this is to fund the Govt using tariffs, and begin shrinking the deficit by using the economic problems and the total debt to justify it. They are trying to avoid a debt crisis where there is more debt being issued than buyers. The problem is that this time, with other options existing for capital than Treasuries, which given the circumstances, the old idea that people run to Govt debt when the markets crash for safety just might not hold up this time. The end result is that they haven’t solved anything, and in fact made the upcoming debt crisis much worse. What’s more is that the old reserve currency dollar system being replaced will accelerate now as trade is forced to route around the U.S. There are so many second order effects here too, all of this will kick off a justification to privatize everything and have the private sector jump in to save and replace Govt functions. What they have wanted to do all along anyway, and given the current political climate will mirror the oligarchs taking over Govt functions after the collapse of the USSR. This is just more of a controlled demolition.

    Sorry for the wall of text. Also, a bretton woods style agreement will be necessary, it’s just that there is no single world power strong enough to enforce one. The futures for Monday look pretty bad too, and there are so many unresolved problems since 2008 that could blow up one after another once all the liquidity is removed and there is no one willing to purchase all the upcoming debt.