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Cake day: May 7th, 2024

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  • Hitler was extremely charismatic, an effective speaker and a clever politician. He was a terrible commander, compounded by his inability to acknowledge and account for that weakness, but in the run-up to the war and in the opening phase, he correctly estimated and effectively capitalised on the other powers’ reluctance to fight another war.

    In Musk and Trump, you can observe a similar phenomenon: the ability to hit the right notes with the right people in order to rile them up and seize the moment before their opponents manage to effectively rally and organise a resistance. Whether by blind luck, intuition or cunning calculation, their results aren’t those of fumbling idiots. However idiotic they may seem to us, their success (so far) proves they got something right.

    But the story isn’t over yet. If I’m wrong and they do end up fumbling their big chance, I’ll happily rescind those words. But as it stands now, I’d rather not underestimate their cunning.





  • That’s what I mean. Voting third party isn’t reasonable, unless it polls well enough ahead of time that it becomes a viable choice for people to risk their vote being wasted for the chance to pick a better option. But even then, they need to trust those polls and need to hope that enough other people come to the same conclusion to actually make it so…

    If you want to break the two-party-stranglehold, you have to vote third party, but only if enough other people vote third party, and that kind of “guessing motives” or trusting in the other actors to make individually irrational but collectively rational decisions is where Game Theory breaks down.

    The theory is clear, but humans aren’t quite so easy to model, and when your game features piles and piles of incomplete information and non-deterministic decisions, things get muddy.





  • Voting for Harris was always going to be an attempt to buy more time for more effective change measures, for pushing progressive support in primaries and local elections, for building public perception that the left actually has a chance and can make a difference. It was never going to fix things –nothing can do so quickly, because cultural change takes time – but prevent the worst so that there might be more time for other measures that would set a better course.

    But some people opted to let perfect be the enemy of “not as bad” and call their complacency noble, so I guess that option is off the table now.








  • The core of Christianity is originally the redemption, not the threat that necessitates it and often is more prominent.

    The cross is a symbol of the sacrifice made to redeem people from the threat of hell. More relevant here is that sin separates humans from God, and through that sacrifice, the connection is restored. It is a catalyst of redemption and reunion. In that sense, they don’t so much pray towards an implement of torture as an implement of liberation, salvation and mercy.

    Given that those are hard things to put in a visual, tangible form and that humans tend to place a lot of value in visual, tangible representations, it’s basically the simplest symbol you could come up with as a nascent cult.

    It’s not the only symbol, and particularly during the rise of the Roman church, you’ll note that icons of saints become very common too. Some places will even have the Crucifix feature the crucified Jesus as well, to drive home the point about sacrifice and gratitude.

    Protestants later held that the worship of saints was tantamount to idolatry and did away with them again, leaving just the core of the message of redemption. There was in some places a conscious choice to pick the “empty” cross rather than the crucified saviour as a symbol that he is no longer dead.

    All in all, given his divine wisdom and love for metaphors and similes, I’d think Jesus would understand the point of the cross…

    …then proceed to trash the place out of rage over the waste of money and effort that went into gaudy churches and gold-embroidered robes instead of helping the sick and poor.