Tariffs on China imports by the Trump administration led to a collapse in trans-Pacific ocean freight bookings by U.S. importers.
  • ikt@aussie.zoneOPEnglish
    341·
    1 day ago

    There’s still a lot going on globally:

    https://www.marinetraffic.com/

    But I don’t expect the US to have a fun ride

    This economist says there’s a 90% chance of a recession. Here’s the math.

    During the 2018 trade war with China, the U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2% to 3%. Studies show that the impact on gross domestic product was between 0.25% and 0.7%.

    Using the low end of the estimated impact, and Trump’s plan that at the moment calls for double-digit tariff rates, Slok says the negative impact on GDP in 2025 could be almost 4 percentage points — and that doesn’t even include the negative impact from uncertainty for consumer spending decisions and business planning.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-economist-says-theres-a-90-chance-of-a-recession-unless-tariff-policies-are-changed-e43c40d1?mod=home_lead

    So a 4% hit to GDP when GDP last year in the US increase by 2.8% does not sound good

    • RedWeasel@lemmy.worldEnglish
      7·
      1 day ago

      I told friends and relatives in February that we’d be in a recession by the end of the year. I expected 3 quarters for it, not his first 2. 2 consecutive quarters of economic contraction are needed by the modern definition of a recession.